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Writer's pictureDaniela Paris

Super Tuesday: Reflections On Predictions


Even before Super Tuesday results began to roll in, news sites across the web posted articles upon articles evaluating past nomination predictions and trends, proving some wrong and others very right. At this point, with modern technology, any website can provide up to date, factual reports on results when it comes to voting. Not all websites, however, can provide intelligent analysis of those results.

The Atlantic's Derek Thompson writes an article reflecting on the flawed predictions often given by the media: the Momentum Theory, which argues that a politician winning early primaries and leading in the polls will then win even more races and lead by larger margins in the polls as time goes on. As Thompson writes, this has been proven wrong by several candidates. Buttigieg, namely, won the Iowa and nearly won the New Hampshire primaries, but lost heavily in the next two primaries and dropped out from the race. Biden, in comparison, didn't do amazingly in the first few primaries but heavily won South Carolina.

The Washington Post, similarly, analyzes Bernie Sanders's voting turnout this year in this article, finding that despite media perception that Sanders is doing well and their predictions of him winning the primary, he lacks the level of votes he got in the 2016 primaries. The Nation, in another great analysis article, discusses the fear among the Democrat upper class pertaining to Sanders's anti-business stances, and the hope they have for Super Tuesday.

Super Tuesday as well seems to be a recurring trend in this week's politics news; that much seems obvious.

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